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How do I interpret cold email performance and know what to change?

Bourhan Sbalbal avatar
Written by Bourhan Sbalbal
Updated over 2 weeks ago

THIS ARTICLE IS FOR: ✅ Both

Stage: Live

Owner: CS

Last updated: 2025-12-19

TL;DR

  • Cold email performance should be judged by multiple metrics together, not one in isolation.

  • Each metric points to a different problem (or success).

  • Most performance issues come from offer, targeting, or response handling—not deliverability.

  • Optimize in the right order to avoid fixing the wrong thing.
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When you’d use this / Why it matters

If results feel confusing—or you’re unsure whether to change copy, targeting, or follow-up—this guide helps you diagnose what’s actually broken based on your metrics and take the right next action.

Key cold email metrics (quick recap)

  • Reply Rate → Are people responding at all?

  • Positive Reply Rate → Are responses interested?

  • Booked Call Rate → Are positive replies turning into calls?

  • Bounce Rate → Are emails being delivered successfully?

Each metric represents a different stage of the funnel.

Scenario 1: Reply rate is GOOD, but positive reply rate is BAD

What this means

  • Deliverability is working

  • Emails are being opened and read

  • The offer or message is not resonating
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This is not a technical issue.

Likely causes

  • Weak or unclear offer

  • Offer doesn’t match the market’s priorities

  • Script fails to communicate value
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What to do

  • ❌ Do not change deliverability settings

  • ✅ Focus on improving:

    • The offer

    • The positioning

    • The campaign angle

👉 See: How do I optimize cold email campaigns?

Scenario 2: Reply rate AND positive reply rate are GOOD

What this means

  • The campaign is working

  • Market + offer alignment is strong

  • Results are now limited by response handling, not outreach
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What to do next

  • Improve how replies are handled

  • Launch a new campaign using:

    • The same offer

    • Similar targeting

    • The best-performing angle
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Inbox management best practices

Responding to positive replies

  • Respond same day whenever possible

  • Always propose a clear next step

  • Keep replies conversational and personalized

  • Reference what they specifically said

  • Share relevant case studies or resources when helpful
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Follow-up cadence

  • Follow up every 2–3 days

  • Expect 5+ touchpoints for some prospects

  • Continue until you get a clear yes, no, or disinterest
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Use multiple channels

Don’t rely on email alone:

  • Email

  • Phone (numbers often in email signatures)

  • LinkedIn

  • Personalized Loom videos
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Scenario 3: Reply rate is BAD (<1%), but positive reply rate is GOOD

What this means

  • People who do reply are interested

  • Most emails aren’t getting engagement

  • This often points to copy or spam-filter issues, not the offer
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Likely causes

  • Spam-triggering words or phrasing

  • Overly promotional language

  • Poor formatting or structure
    ​

What to do

  • Simplify and clean up copy

  • Remove spammy or salesy phrasing

  • Align scripts with what’s driving the positive replies

  • Improve response handling to capitalize on interest
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Important note

If someone replies positively:

  • Call them

  • Connect on LinkedIn

  • Follow up across channels

They engaged—you’re allowed to be proactive.

Scenario 4: Bounce rate is BAD (ListKit-provided leads)

What this means

  • There may be a verification or delivery issue with the leads

What to do

  • Share the affected leads with:

    • Your Account Manager, or

    • Support

The team will investigate and resolve the issue.

Realistic expectations for cold email

Cold email results are driven primarily by offer quality.

Typical benchmarks

  • Bad offer: 1 client per 20,000–100,000 emails

  • Average offer: 1 client per 5,000–10,000 emails

  • Great offer: 1 client per 1,000–5,000 emails
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What makes an offer strong?

There are four key variables:

  1. Case studies (real, measurable results)

  2. Social presence (visible, credible, active)

  3. A specific, measurable claim

  4. A guarantee or risk reversal

How many you have determines performance:

  • 0–1 → Weak

  • 2 → Average

  • 3 → Strong

  • 4 → Highly scalable
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How to optimize underperforming campaigns

Before making changes

  • Wait until the campaign is 40–45% complete

  • Early variance often normalizes

Optimization order (highest impact → lowest)

  1. Test a new offer

  2. Change the target market

  3. Revise scripts

Scripts communicate the offer — they don’t fix a weak one.

Final takeaway

Most performance issues fall into one of three buckets:

  • Offer problem

  • Targeting problem

  • Response handling problem

Deliverability issues are the least common once campaigns are live.

Interpret metrics together, diagnose correctly, and optimize in the right order—that’s how cold email improves consistently over time.

Expected outcome

You should now be able to:

  • Diagnose performance issues accurately

  • Avoid changing the wrong variable

  • Optimize campaigns based on real signal, not guesswork
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