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When cold email results dip, what should I do?

Bourhan Sbalbal avatar
Written by Bourhan Sbalbal
Updated over 2 weeks ago

THIS ARTICLE IS FOR: ✅ Both

Stage: Live

Owner: CS

Last updated: 2025-12-19


TL;DR

  • Early dips or slowdowns are normal in cold email.

  • Most campaigns need time before data is meaningful.

  • Replies naturally slow after a campaign is ~65% complete.

  • Optimize in the right order: offer → market → script.

  • Technical issues are the least common cause of dips.


When you’d use this / Why it matters

If leads slow down or results feel inconsistent, it’s easy to assume something is broken. In most cases, nothing is. This guide explains what’s normal, when to wait, and when to take action so you don’t kill a campaign that would have worked.


“Why am I not generating leads?”

❗ Important context

ListKit’s role is to put your offer in front of your ideal prospects at scale.

A lack of immediate replies does not automatically mean something is wrong.

In most cases, the correct action is simple:

👉 Wait

Cold email has natural variance, especially early on.

Before making changes:

  • Let the campaign run

  • Avoid reacting emotionally to early data

  • Allow first emails and follow-ups to be delivered

❌ Do not optimize or restart campaigns too early.


When should I create a new campaign?

‼️ Create a new campaign when:

  • Your credits refresh

  • AND your current campaign starts to fizzle out


How to tell a campaign is fizzling out

  1. Go to https://send.listkit.io and sign in

  2. Open the Email Campaigns tab

  3. Check the campaign progress bar

✅ Once a campaign reaches 65%+ completion, replies naturally slow down.

This is expected behavior—not a failure.


Why replies slow down over time

In 9 out of 10 cases, reply slowdowns happen because:

  • The campaign is more than two-thirds complete

  • Most leads already received Email 1 and Email 2

  • Only follow-ups remain

At this stage:

  • Fewer new conversations are being started

  • Reply volume naturally tapers off

Solution: Launch a new campaign while the current one finishes.


How to optimize when results dip

Before optimizing, confirm:

  • Campaign is at least 40–45% complete

  • Most first and second emails have been delivered

If the campaign is only 30–40% complete, variance may still correct itself.


The correct optimization order

(highest → lowest impact)

1) Test a new offer (highest leverage)

Focus on what you’re offering, not how you word it.

Examples:

  • Offer free ad creative instead of ad management

  • Rewrite one landing page instead of pitching full service

  • Offer a free valuation instead of asking for a call

The goal is to prove competence upfront.


2) Change the target market (medium leverage)

If the offer is solid:

  • Test adjacent industries

  • Target markets with less crowded inboxes

  • Explore partnership or referral-style outreach

Same offer, new audience.


3) Revise scripts (lowest leverage)

Scripts communicate the offer—they don’t fix a weak one.

Only revise scripts after:

  • Offer changes

  • Market changes

Even average scripts perform well with:

  • A strong offer

  • The right audience


Realistic expectations for cold email

Results are driven primarily by offer quality.

Typical benchmarks

  • Bad offer: 1 client per 20,000–100,000 emails

  • Average offer: 1 client per 5,000–10,000 emails

  • Great offer: 1 client per 1,000–5,000 emails


What determines offer quality?

There are four key variables:

  1. Case studies (real, measurable results)

  2. Social presence (visible, active, credible)

  3. Specific, measurable claim

  4. Guarantee or risk reversal

Rate your offer:

  • 0–1 → Weak

  • 2 → Average

  • 3 → Strong

  • 4 → Highly scalable


Action plan when results dip

  1. Confirm campaign is 40–45% complete

  2. Check which angles perform best in split testing

  3. Test a new offer

  4. Try a new target market

  5. Revise scripts only after the above

  6. Launch a new campaign once the current one hits ~65%


Final takeaway

When results dip:

  • It’s usually normal

  • It’s often timing-related

  • It’s rarely a technical issue

Cold email rewards patience, iteration, and strong offers.

Let campaigns run, read the data correctly, and optimize in the right order.


Expected outcome

You should now be able to:

  • Tell normal variance from real problems

  • Avoid premature optimizations

  • Apply the right fix at the right time


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